SKON Predictionometer

[Beej]

Didn't think it would do well just based on PFAYM as one big flop, but since Nicky has been whoring himself out and his Tweet about the album sales going up 121% I think theres a good chance it will do alright. 15ish?

[The Gutless Wonder]

Wouldn't say Postcards has flopped! I think it's done really well!

[SBazB]

I've been digging around on the internet to find the current chart eligibility rules. www.theofficialcharts.com if very informative.

Sales of the digital EP on iTunes should count as it would seem to comply with this rule (from the pdf "Rules for Chart Eligibility: Singles"):

Digital Single Bundle
Audio Download
Minimum £0.40 (dealer price)
25 minutes and no more than four songs (audio or video) plus alternative audio versions of featured songs.
Playing time of video tracks will not count towards total permitted playing time providing the video is cut to substantially the same mix as featured audio tracks or is the only commercially available video for the tracks.
Bundle must feature lead song as audio track.

This website would also appear to answer most questions from my previous post in this thread. Basically, sales from "all significant retailers" are counted. Full text pasted below (from FAQ on www.theofficialcharts.com):

"Where do you collect sales from?
The simple answer is all significant retailers. In practice this adds up to retailers representing more than 3,500 over the counter shops, home delivery retailers and a wide range of digital stores. These stores span independent retailers (such as Rough/mail order Trade, Jumbo, Chalky's and many others, all around the country), high street chains (such as HMV, Fopp and WH Smith), supermarkets (such as Sainsbury's, Tesco, Asda and Morrisons), internet mail order (such as Amazon, Play.com and Recordstore.co.uk) and download services (iTunes, 7Digital, Amazon MP3, HMV, and others). As a result, we estimate that we capture around 99% of all singles sold, 98% of all albums and 90% of all videos/DVDs."

Note, no mention of official band website shop sales been counted... Hmmm.... How many of us buy the singles from www.manics.com?Seen as the last two single releases have had CD2 exclusively available via the website, the band could be shooting themselves in the foot as these sales may not count towards the official chart.

It would also appear that sales of the video don't count towards single sales unless it is part of a digital bundle.

[The Gutless Wonder]

Talk about confusing!

[starstruck]

Originally Posted by SBazB

Note, no mention of official band website shop sales been counted... Hmmm.... How many of us buy the singles from www.manics.com?Seen as the last two single releases have had CD2 exclusively available via the website, the band could be shooting themselves in the foot as these sales may not count towards the official chart.

not at all, it's not that you buy them from manics.co.uk, you are buying them from townshend records, who host the "official store". i imagine the sales will count.

[everlasting]

See, I find it absolutely retarded to make CD2 "exclusive" to one place to purchase, I mean, isn't that a bit daft and potentially losing potential sales? Not to mention we're not entirely sure sales from the official site count?...surely they must do?
But yeah the single should count then, cos it has 4 tracks on the CD so that therefore according to those rules makes it fine.
Least Postcards album is selling decent this week.

[SBazB]

Originally Posted by leericketts

not at all, it's not that you buy them from manics.co.uk, you are buying them from townshend records, who host the "official store". i imagine the sales will count.

Ok, that's good to know. I imagine sales from the official website do count then.

Originally Posted by everlasting

...But yeah the single should count then, cos it has 4 tracks on the CD so that therefore according to those rules makes it fine.
Least Postcards album is selling decent this week.

Yes, the main 4-track CD definitely counts. I was taking about the digital Live EP. Some people around here seemed to be worried that it only counted to iTunes album sales... but under the rules for singles chart eligibility it is fine. Yes it has 5 individual tracks which isn't normally allowed, but it runs less than 25 minutes and the two versions of Some Kind of Nothingness count as one because it is the "featured" track (as in it's the track that's the single, it's not a bonus track/b-side)

I still think the way record companies think these days is out of synch with how people buy music. Once an album has been released it's fairly pointless releasing more singles as people who want the tracks have already bought the album or cherry-picked the songs they like on iTunes or another online store. They're not going to buy it again. The only people left are hardcore fans that want the bonus tracks. Even then, I bet some of these hardcore fans only buy the bonus tracks separately on iTunes (meaning the sale doesn't count towards the singles chart placing) as fans can be quite vocal about which songs they do and don't like. The case in point is Some Kind of Nothingness, which a fair number of people around here claim is "bland" - Did they still download the single??? Not necessarily. All of this is detrimental to the chart placing.

On a positive note, I imagine the single will still do well in the PHYSICAL sales chart as no one except "real" music fans buy CD singles anymore! By the way, does anyone know where It's Not War placed on the physical sales chart?

[everlasting]

SKON is today still just inside the top 40. Probably hang on in there until last second and then it'll plop down a bunch and make them lose their streak of top 40 singles
Don't know how it's doing on physical sales but I assume it's where most of the sales have come from.

[SBazB]

Come on people. Even if you don't like the song much - get it downloaded and tell your friends to download it as well. It would be a real shame for it not to go Top 40. Remember, although chart positions are not the be all and end all, it will be noted by their record company and affect their willingness to pump money into future releases if they think they are becoming less and less likely to make their money back.

[Dean V]

Frankly I think the label telling them to do what they want with less of a budget would be good for the band creatively. They'd have to earn a spot in modern pop charts then instead of just putting strings on top of a nothingy song.

*keeps fiver in bank account until b-sides become available away from the single*

I am surprised it's almost out of the top 40 though, thought it'd hold on to mid 30s.

[Beat Poet]

Originally Posted by Dean V

Frankly I think the label telling them to do what they want with less of a budget would be good for the band creatively. They'd have to earn a spot in modern pop charts then instead of just putting strings on top of a nothingy song.

From what they've said, they pretty much have full creative control these days. I think possibly the only reason Sony resigned them is that the Manics have agreed to cover/reduce most of their costs, hence buying the studio and taking the bare amount of production/crew on the road.

[Dean V]

Ah fair enough, I didn't know that. I know from now on whenever the band say "we want a hit sales album! Not like our last one, more like Everything Must Go (again)!" means for me to avoid it. Then they'll release another good album a few years later and repeat the cycle. Bloody Manics.

[SBazB]

Originally Posted by Beat Poet

From what they've said, they pretty much have full creative control these days. I think possibly the only reason Sony resigned them is that the Manics have agreed to cover/reduce most of their costs, hence buying the studio and taking the bare amount of production/crew on the road.

Yes, they have their own studio, so they don't have to pay for studio time, but they still have to pay for the engineer and producer, plus extra musicians, which is all very expensive. Also, any kind of tour is always expensive. Take Queen as an example. They didn't make any profit on a tour until 1986 (11 years after they hit the big time with Bohemian Rhapsody)!

[Beat Poet]

Don't forget that Eringa will take his cut from the album and probably works at mates' rates since they use him for every (single bloody) album. Studio time is a huge wedge though.

[Milan_Catwalks]

Hope it makes the Top 40. How many places did It's Not War drop from its midweek position to reach 28?